Ivory Coast's Ouattara Sees Hope Fade for Regional Military Intervention

Ivory Coast's Ouattara Sees Hope Fade for Regional Military Intervention
Ivory Coast's Ouattara Sees Hope Fade for Regional Military Intervention
Ivory Coast's Ouattara Sees Hope Fade for Regional Military Intervention

Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, the African Union’s envoy, will return to Ivory Coast this week in a second effort to find a resolution to the conflict, according to an e-mail sent from his office in Nairobi yesterday. Odinga’s trip follows the efforts of former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who made an unannounced visit to the country on Jan. 8.

The U.S., the United Nations, the AU and the Economic Community of West African States, or Ecowas, recognize Ouattara, 69, as the winner of the Nov. 28 election. Incumbent Gbagbo, 65, refuses to cede power, alleging vote fraud in some northern regions. Ecowas hasn’t taken any military action since saying on Dec. 24 it may use “legitimate force” to oust Gbagbo.

The bloc “is losing any semblance of credibility,” said Kissy Agyeman-Togobo, West Africa analyst for Songhai Advisory, based in London. “As time has worn on and as the level of support for Gbagbo hasn’t dwindled domestically, perhaps Ecowas is seeing going in could result in carnage.”

The UN estimates as many as 210 people have been killed in violence following the vote. About 25,000 people have fled to neighboring Liberia since the crisis began, and are arriving at a rate of 600 people per day, the UN’s refugee agency said today. Internally, about 16,000 people have fled villages in the west of the country where the political crisis has exacerbated ethnic tensions, according to the Humanitarian Country Team, a group of non-governmental and UN organizations.

Eurobonds

Ivory Coast’s $2.3 billion in Eurobonds recorded their biggest jump on record today after the Finance Ministry told bondholders it is “taking all necessary measures” to pay a $29 million coupon payment that it missed on Dec. 31. The bonds rose 10.6 percent to 41.875 cents on the dollar at 12:22 p.m. in Abidjan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The government has a 30-day grace period to make the payment.

Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, “does not have any other option than taking into consideration the commitments taken in the past,” Ahoua Don Mello, a Gbagbo spokesman said by phone from Abidjan.

The government may pay the money within days, according to DaMina Advisors LLP, a New York-based frontier-market risk advisor.